Oscar 2010 Predictions

Tomorrow it’s nomination days!

My country is buzzing with anticipation of a possible Best Foreign Film nod for The Milk of Sorrow.

Anyway, I did Oscar predictions last year and I got about 85% of nominations right considering all of the categories, and nearly a perfect score in major categories of acting, directing and film. However, I don’t think I will be getting a score as good as last time.

Best Actor:
– Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
– George Clooney – Up in the Air
– Colin Firth – A Single Man
– Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker
– Morgan Freeman – Invictus

I’m still not convinced on Freeman’s performance (or the film) but biopics are always a plus. If Freeman’s not nominated, Viggo Mortensen for The Road. Best “I did not see this coming” would be Sam Rockwell getting a nod for Moon.

Supporting Actor:
– Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds
– Woody Harrelson – The Messenger
– Christopher Plummer – The Last Station
– Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
– Alfred Molina – An Education

Alfred Molina has been snubbed in some of the awards, but he would totally deserve a nomination even if he’s not winning. However, Matt Damon for Invictus could be favored instead of Molina.

Best Actress:
– Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
– Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side
– Helen Mirren – The Last Station
– Carey Mulligan – An Education
– Gabourey Sidibe – Precious

I am favoring Helen Mirren over Emily Blunt for The Young Victoria. I liked TYV fine, and I haven’t seen The Last Station, but I think Mirren gives the category an age balance. Also best “not see this coming” would be Charlotte Gainsbourg for Antichrist.

Supporting Actress:
– Mo’Nique – Precious
– Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air
– Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
– Julianne Moore – A Single Man
– Samantha Morton – The Messenger

My fifth spot, I’m giving to Morton, but it really could go to anyone from Marion Cotillard or Penelope Cruz for Nine, or Diane Kruger or Melanie Laurent for Inglourious Basterds

Director:
– Kathryn Bigelow – Hurt Locker
– James Cameron – Avatar
– Jason Reitman – Up in the Air
– Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds
– Lee Daniels – Precious

Obviously, awards have been favoring Clint Eastwood’s Invictus over Lee Daniels’ Precious.

Best Film:
– Avatar
– Hurt Locker
– Inglourious Basterds
– Precious
– Up in the Air

– (500) Days of Summer
– The Hangover
– An Education
– Up
– District 9

The first five films are the ones that would be the nominated if it were five… the next five are up for grabs for me. I’m not used to 10 nominations…  Any of those five could be changed in favor of Nine. Though, in reality they should be very capable foreign films like A Prophet or White Ribbon… but those are Foreign, right??? They can NOT possibly be Best Film material, right??? Right…

If the Academy favors smaller released for the other 5, they’d be…

– A Single Man
– A Prophet
– An Education
– The White Ribbon
– A Serious Man

But then… what would be the purpose of a Foreign Film category, right?

Now, onto the others…

Animated Feature:
– Up
– Coraline
– Fantastic Mr. Fox

– Princess and the Frog
– Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

I don’t know if it’s going to be three or five this time around. If I had any faith on this, I would change any of the last two in favor of Mary and Max, but that’s not going to happen, right? Also, I would favor Ponyo over Meatballs.

Art Direction:
– Avatar
– District 9
– The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
– Inglourious Basterds
– A Single Man

There is always a subdued film in the Art Direction (or Production Design) category, so I’m picking A Single Man instead of other big productions like Nine or The Lonely Bones… or Where the Wild Things Are or *gasp* Watchmen?

Cinematography:
– Avatar
– District 9
– The Hurt Locker
– Inglourious Basterds
– The Lonely Bones

If you take into account what’s been talked about lately, it would be The Lonely Bones or The Road up there in the fifth spot. However, I really think Watchmen should get something visually. REALLY.

Costume Design:
– Where the Wild Things Are
– Inglourious Basterds
– An Education
– A Single Man
– The Young Victoria

Obviously, period pieces are big on this category. Period pieces are all about costume design, so Bright Star could be up there instead of big productions like Wild Things or Basterds… or just cancel out The Young Victoria.

Film Editing:
– Avatar
– District 9
– The Hurt Locker
– Inglourious Basterds
– Up in the Air

Film Editing usually favors action films, but I think that Avatar just closed the door to most no-quality good editing action films.

Foreign Film:
– Un Prophete (A Prophet) (France)
– Das Weisse Band (The White Ribbon) (Germany)

– Samson & Delilah (Australia)
– Kelin (Kazakhstan)
– Winter in Wartime (Oorlogswinter) (The Netherlands)

The first two seem like locks on this, which leaves 3 spots to fill. I’m picking those 3 based on trailers… Movies related to World War II always do well, so Winter in Wartime seems like an easy choice. If I had to include Peru’s Milk of Sorrow here, I would discard Kelin.

Make-up:
– The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
– Nine
– District 9

Obviously, this is up for grabs with films like Star Trek canceling out District, or Avatar… is Avatar considered Makeup or just complete CGI? Maybe a period piece could sneak here like The Young Victoria or Coco Before Chanel.

Original Score:
– Up
– Avatar
– Crazy Heart
– Fantastic Mr. Fox
– The Informant!

I’m pretty sure the score for Where the Wild Things Are was not eligible, which sucks. I don’t think Avatar’s score was anything genius, but everyone seems to be nominating it.

Original Song:
– The Weary Kind by Ryan Bingham (Crazy Heart)
– All Is Love by Karen O, Nick Zinner (Where The Wild Things Are)
– Down in New Orleans by Dr. John (The Princess and the Frog)

– Ma Belle Evangeline by Jim Cummings (The Princess and the Frog)
– I See You by Leona Lewis – Avatar

Any of the Princess songs could be snubbed in favor of a song from Nine (I mean, it IS a musical film) or another song from Princess, or maybe even snub Where the Wild Things Are. I could do with just three nominated songs this year, which would mean I’m not down with Leona Lewis.

Sound Editing:
– Avatar
– District 9
– The Hurt Locker
– Up
– Star Trek

I’m getting bored… xD

Sound Mixing:
– Avatar
– District 9
– Star Trek
– Up
– Where the Wild Things Are

I lot of people seem not to know the difference between Mixing and Editing, so most awards just make a “best sound” category. From what I can understand of sound, which isn’t much, is that Sound Editing is how you make a specific sound (eg. the sound of a lightsaber), and Sound Mixing is how the sounds you create blend with each other, the score and the dialog to create a seamless piece.

Visual Effects:
– Avatar
– District 9
– Star Trek

Right?

Original Screenplay:
– (500) Days of Summer
– The Hurt Locker
– Inglourious Basterds
– A Serious Man
– Up

I’m confused, is Avatar adapted or original? LOL

Adapted Screenplay:
– An Education
– District 9
– Fantastic Mr. Fox
– Up in the Air
– Precious

I’m favoring Precious here over Where the Wild Things Are just because Precious has such heavy themes. And I’m favoring An Education over A Single Man because I haven’t seen it. LOL

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Anyway, I really want Oscar to surprise me, even if that means I only get less than 50% of these right. I would love to see Where the Wild Things Are up in Best Picture or maybe something like A Prophet there too. You know, if you make it 10 Best Films it’d better not be extra 5 American films that “we are adding just because people always complain they haven’t seen the nominated films”.

Also I read a comment (about the Grammy), where they were complaining only big album sellers win. So which is it, people? You want popular big hits to win or the little somethings you haven’t heard of?

Will I get more than 85% this time around? Unlikely. *crossing fingers*