How sweet were my Oscar predictions? Pretty sweet, but not as sweet as 2003. I made a 18/24 mark, not bettering my 21/24 mark from that year.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced their nominees on January 22nd, the day I made my first guesses on who would win. Six days later, I made some modifications, and as Golden Globe winners and Screen Actor Guild winners were announced, I kept on tabulating. Now, with BAFTA winners announced, I’m on the final lap as to make my ultimate winner list.
First off, there is the Best Actor award, which undoubtedly will go to Daniel Day-Lewis for his fantastic job in There Will Be Blood. After several Critic Choice winnings, Lewis has also been awarded a Golden Globe, a SAG and a BAFTA ~ giving him a 99,9% chance to win. Also following this pattern, the Spanish actor, Javier Bardem who will most likely win Best Supporting Actor for his terrifying portrayal in No Country for Old Men.
The Best Actress award makes an epic battle between Oscar veteran Julie Christie for her interpretation of a wife battling Alzheimer’s disease in Away from Her, and French actress Marion Cotillard for her portrayal of French singer, Edith Piaf in the awarded musical drama La Vie en Rose. Throughout award season, Christie and Cotillard have been battling it out in Critic Choice winnings, both with Golden Globes, while Christie with a SAG and Cotillard with a BAFTA win.
Cotillard’s rendition of Piaf’s life from her teens to her dying days has written OSCAR all over it. It’s a biopic about the tragic life of a famous singer, it comes with an unbelievable physical transformation of gorgeous 32-tear-old Marion as a dying 80-year-old-looking 48-year-old woman, and it’s a performance that transcends the language barrier… I should know, I watched it in French with Swedish subtitles, and it still made an impact. You only need to watch the sequence when Piaf realizes her lover is dead, and Marion breaks down in a feral search that carries through a continuous scene. Simply breathtaking.
However, Cotillard’s main problem is she is a foreign-language nominated actress. Several other non-American actresses have won (e.g. Ingrid Bergman), but there’s only two instances when a foreign-language nominated actor or actress has won… Sophia Loren in 1961 for Two Women, and Roberto Benigni in 1998 for La Vita e Bella. If anyone should beat Cotillard this year, should be Julie Christie, but I’m sticking with Cotillard.
The Best Supporting Actress is even more up in the air, with Cate Blanchett who won a Golden Globe for her role in the Bob Dylan biopic I’m Not There, Ruby Dee winning the SAG for American Gangster, Tilda Swinton getting the BAFTA, and Amy Ryan sweeping Critic Choices. I feel a little sorry for the young and talented Saoirse Ronan for her role in Atonement… but I’m thinking this is up between fave Blanchett and Amy Ryans.
The race for Best Animated feature seems almost won for Pixar’s Ratatouille, just as Finding Nemo won in 2003, beating Les Triplettes of Belleville… this year’s Persepolis would be a good surprise. Just as good as Happy Feet beating Cars last year.
And just as Day-Lewis and Bardem are shoo-ins in their categories, the Coen brothers seem to be the clear winners in the Best Director categories, winning a BAFTA and the Directors Guild award for No Country for Old Men. However, the surprise could be once again given by Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, just as he surprised us with a Golden Globe win.
The award of the night would definitely be battled out between No Country for Old Men and Atonement. Atonement has a BAFTA, and a Golden Globe win, while No Country has a Best Ensemble Cast from the SAG, which is like the equal to a Best Film. Considering the past eight years of Best Director/Best Film results, I can probably guess Atonement has the Best Film title because there’s a 50% that the Best Film this year is not awarded to the Best Director, and we have to thank that to Scorsese winning last year and The Departed winning too.
Best prediction EVER. Marion Cotillard winning. Contrary to the Press’s upset headline… Marion is NOT an upset, ok? My Marion is not an upset. My Marion is so rocking that even Cate Blanchett (who was also nominated in her category) paid her respects… Lainey said so.
Not even Tilda Swinton was an upset… it was the unexpected expected after her BAFTA win. The biggest upset was Animated Short that should’ve gone to Canada with I Met the Walrus – and whoever watches the trailer to that is blown away~ Instead, it went to France to Peter & the Wolf.
Special surprise, Golden Compass winning Visual Effects beating Transformers. My choice was Transformers because Optimus blew me away, but I’m happy that Iorek got noticed… maybe this will secure a Subtle Knife sequel?
And Once won Original Song, Enchated splitted its votes – PLUS, Once won the day before at the Independent Spirit Awards as Best Foreign Film. How sweet is Marketa Irglova? Hansard was totally blabbing, and Stewart made my day when he let Irglova come back for some stage time.
LOVE LOVE LOVE Marion and Marketa. And Amy Adams… she was so brave doing her solo song, all attention on her. Love Javier Bardem… Spanish quiveration~ more quiveration with James McAvoy, and Johnny Depp… and Viggo, despite the pervy vibe, as Julz put it.
Loads of blogging, not enough time… a lot of hand aching and not enough bathroom time. ha! I’ll say it again… Marion was a sweet win, and I can say that I saw her first, ha!